Posted 3/13/2024, 2:24:00 PM
Economist Warns Investors Against Complacency Despite Rosy Forecasts
- Most forecasters have abandoned recession predictions, reminiscent of overly optimistic 2007 outlooks according to SocGen's Albert Edwards
- Economic indicators like falling consumer confidence, flat labor market growth, and low GDP growth point to impending economic trouble
- 91% of economists see <50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, even known bears like Nouriel Roubini have softened views
- Record stock highs have created a narrative of economic strength, but Edwards sees fragility reminiscent of pre-2007 bubble
- Investors are positioning for Fed rate cuts in a soft landing scenario, with bullish 6-month stock outlook from 50%+