Key Events This Week Could Impact US Bond Market Volatility and Yields
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Key events this week will influence volatility in the US bond market as it heads toward a three-year loss, including Treasury supply updates, Fed and Bank of Japan meetings, and the monthly jobs report.
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The Treasury will announce bond issuance plans to finance the swelling deficit, which may pressure yields higher if sizes increase.
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The Fed is expected to hold rates steady but markets bet hikes are over, barring a strong jobs report that shows resilient wage growth.
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The Bank of Japan's move away from yield curve control triggered a global bond selloff by reducing overseas purchases; further steps could be bearish.
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Soft economic data like disappointing earnings and auto strikes suggest downside risks to growth, supporting long-duration government bonds.