Piper Sandler Strategist Still Forecasts Recession Despite Some Positive Data

Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz still predicts a recession ahead despite some signs of economic strength.

Kantrowitz says unemployment claims data often looks better initially before revisions reveal a worsening trend.

Historical data shows yield curve inversions precede rising jobless claims by over 12 months.

Kantrowitz sees signs like slowing furniture sales that point to higher unemployment ahead.

According to RBC, the average stock decline during recessions is 32%, implying significant downside if a recession hits.