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Strong economy, fading inflation reduce recession risk

  • Consumers have savings and wage gains, so economy unlikely to stall
  • Oil price spikes unlikely; OPEC would increase supply to prevent recession
  • Inflation falling; Fed likely done hiking rates; policy already working
  • Lag time argument for recession starting late 2023 lacks credibility
  • Labor shortages and wage pressures fading; job openings and quit rates down
marketwatch.com
Relevant topic timeline:
The U.S. stock market experienced a milder bear market in 2022 compared to historical bear markets, with a decline of 25% from its prior high, and history suggests that a new bull market is likely to follow soon.
Stock markets worldwide experience declines amid concerns over the Chinese property market, rising US bond yields, and poor economic data in China and the UK.
Despite concerns over the financial health of the US consumer, projections for a stock market decline may be unfounded as consumers have the capacity to spend, with low debt levels, significant assets, untapped home equity, low mortgage rates, and solid retail spending.
The recent market pullback has investors questioning if it's the start of a bear market or just a correction, but it's important to recognize that markets are inherently uncertain, and focusing on long-term goals and factors we can control is key to success in investing.
Summary: As investors brace for the possibility of a bear market, three top stocks to consider are Hormel Foods, Walmart, and McDonald's, each of which has defensive businesses that can thrive in tough economic conditions.
Despite a decline in August, the US market is still in good shape, with a correction in stocks being viewed as a normal breather rather than the start of a bear market, while various trends and indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend.
U.S. stock futures decline as concerns over China's economy and rising bond yields weigh on global sentiment and equities.
Stocks on Wall Street are expected to decline as concerns about inflation raise doubts about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, while worries about crumbling demand and falling German industrial orders add to the uncertainty.
The stock market sinks as a tech selloff occurs due to investors' fear of more Fed rate hikes, with Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia all experiencing significant declines.
Stock futures decline as investors express concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential to maintain a restrictive monetary policy due to rising inflation.
Stocks declined amid speculation that US inflation data will show persistent price pressures, increasing the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated; market focus is on the US consumer price report.
The stock market is disregarding signs of an economic slowdown, despite historical evidence suggesting it could be a cause for concern.
The Philippine stock market continues to decline, with concerns about a hawkish central bank deterring foreign investors and wiping out billions of dollars in market value.
Despite claims of a bear market, indicators like website traffic suggest that cryptocurrencies may not be experiencing a decline, as some major platforms have seen a significant drop in traffic while others have experienced an increase.
Investors are selling and bringing the market down due to reasons like interest rates, macroeconomic weakness, fear of giving up on gains, the Federal Reserve, the political climate, and potential strikes, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
To prepare for a bear market, consider investing in Berkshire Hathaway and other defensive stocks such as Albertsons, Target, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Campbell Soup, and General Mills that offer reasonable valuations and income-generating opportunities.
The stock market's decline has intensified recently, leading to concerns about how far it could fall.
Stocks may be experiencing a temporary pullback, but it is not a signal of a bear market, and a bull market may still be continuing; making the mistake of not positioning for long-term bullishness could result in significant financial losses.
Bitcoin's weakness suggests that bears are still in control, but bulls are likely to defend the $26,000 level and aim for a positive monthly close, while macroeconomic factors and the strength of the US dollar pose risks to the cryptocurrency recovery.
The recent decline in the US equity market is validating concerns about its lopsided nature, with a small number of top-performing stocks leading the market lower and the remaining companies struggling to make gains, potentially exacerbating losses in a rising Treasury yield environment.
The recent decline in the market and various indicators suggest that the market may already be in or very close to a bear market, signaling the need for caution and a potential economic recession.
The stock market experienced another ugly day, with major indexes dropping and no bounce or dip buying, leading some to believe that we are in a bear market despite the lack of official acknowledgement.
The current stock market decline, driven by a "confluence of factors," does not indicate a financial crisis and presents an opportunity for investors to buy stocks, according to DataTrek Research.
Investors are concerned about the recent stock market decline due to surging oil prices, rising bond yields, and worries about economic growth, leading to a sell-off even in major tech companies and potentially impacting President Biden's approval ratings.
US stocks fell as investors worried about the impact of higher interest rates, with the Dow down nearly 1.5% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes also dropping. Concerns about the Federal Reserve's policy and its effect on the housing market and potential recession led to the market decline.
The recent stock market declines may indicate that the Federal Reserve's actions could result in future pain for the economy.
The U.S. stock market continues to decline despite oversold conditions, and while there are potential buy signals in certain areas, confirmation is required before taking action.
The US Treasury bond market is experiencing the greatest bear market of all time, with a significant decline in performance and a 50% loss in the 30-year US Treasury bonds.
Treasury debt losses over the past three years have resulted in the worst bear market for the U.S. in its nearly 250-year history, with long-duration Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in over 16 years, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.
Market sentiment indicators suggest that the recent decline in the stock market may be the beginning of a larger bear market, although some indicators still signal bullish sentiment.
Renowned fund manager Jeremy Grantham predicts that the stock market could drop by 50% and advises investors to avoid U.S. stocks, instead focusing on high-quality stocks that have historically outperformed the overall market and demonstrated resilience during downturns.
US stocks fall as fears of war in the Middle East and hopes for stronger profits at big US companies collide in financial markets; oil prices rise and Treasury yields fall, creating uncertainty in the market.
The author suggests that the recent price decline in the market may be the start of another bear market, and they believe the key indicator to watch for confirmation is a divergence between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 indices, specifically if the Russell 2000 breaks below last year's bear market lows.
Despite the current strong rally, the American stock market is not expected to reclaim its previous peak in the near future due to geopolitical risks, uncertainty about inflation and interest rates, and political dysfunction in Washington, resulting in a slow grind lower, leaving room for both bullish and bearish sentiments.
The decline in transportation stocks is signaling concern for the broader stock market, as transportation stocks are seen as leading indicators for economic growth and recent earnings reports from airline and trucking companies have fallen short of expectations.