Opinion: Stock market's decline is just beginning, this top fund manager says

Eli Salzmann, manager of the Neuberger Berman Large Cap Value Fund, predicts that a recession is on the way and advises investors to adopt a defensive position in their portfolios, with holdings in consumer staples and utilities, due to the impact of monetary policy, the inverted yield curve, and higher inflation.

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Relevant topic timeline:

8/21/2023

This market strategist expects stagflation and is investing for it now.

Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, warns investors to be agnostic and open-minded in order to find opportunities in a challenging market environment, particularly due to the threat of stagflation, and suggests allocating investments to sectors such as health care, gold, Japan, India, Brazil, and energy stocks. McCullough criticizes the Federal Reserve for underestimating future inflation and urges investors to watch their actions rather than their words. He predicts that the Fed will tighten rates despite a low point in the U.S. economy, leading to a potential stock market crash. McCullough advises investors to own assets like gold and to be cautious with U.S. stocks, while favoring sectors that are accelerating, such as health care.

8/25/2023

Crescat Capital August Letter: Violent Repricing

This article does not mention any specific stocks. The author's advice is to rotate out of historically overvalued financial assets and into historically undervalued critical resources. The author's core argument is that there is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months, and they believe that the Fed's policies will contribute to this recession. The author also highlights potential risks in the junk bond market, the private equity industry, and the banking sector.

8/29/2023

Are markets still pricing in a recession?

Investors are speculating about the likelihood of a recession after recent data showed a decline in job openings, and Key Advisors Wealth Management CEO Eddie Ghabour believes that the market is not prepared for a recession and it could bring about significant volatility. Ghabour highlights factors such as the JOLTS data, earnings season results, and housing market data to support his recession forecast. He also mentions concerns about rising inflation and its impact on the bond market. Ghabour predicts that a recession could lead to a double-digit drop in equity markets and suggests buying the long end of the Treasury curve as a top trade if a recession occurs.

9/1/2023

Recession is likely in 2024 because companies face a 'huge shock' of having to refinance debt at higher interest rates, top strategist warns

Fidelity International's Salman Ahmed maintains his prediction of a recession next year, citing the full impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening and a wave of corporate debt refinancing as leading factors.

9/4/2023

The 'Wizard of Wharton' says stocks are on solid ground - and house prices are shaking off mortgage pain

Jeremy Siegel, known as the "Wizard of Wharton," believes that the US stock market is in a good position due to receding inflation threats, and that the housing market is resilient as investors view both as valuable hedges against inflation. Additionally, a softer labor market could delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike until December.

9/6/2023

Unemployment rate only a tenth of a point from a recession: Economist

The global economic slowdown and U.S. recession risks are causing concern among officials, with experts discussing recession forecasts and advising investors on portfolio and sector strategies.

9/12/2023

Economy Facing Strong Headwinds as Recession Risk Rises

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs may be optimistic about a "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, but the author remains skeptical due to factors such as a deeply inverted yield curve, declining Leading Economic Indicators, challenges faced by the consumer, global growth concerns, and the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy, leading them to maintain a conservative portfolio allocation.

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Posted 8/21/2023, 11:33:00 AM