Political Turmoil Clouds Pakistan's Economic Outlook and Ability to Secure IMF Bailout

Pakistan faces challenges with fiscal consolidation and reforms due to a weak coalition government and political instability. The country is likely to miss fiscal targets.

Turbulent politics and unstable government will add to Pakistan's economic risks. There are ongoing tensions between Imran Khan and the military.

The current government coalition seems reluctant to sign on to politically costly reforms needed for an IMF deal.

No Pakistani prime minister has ever finished a full 5-year term. Pakistan has a long history of unsuccessful IMF programs.

Pakistan has heavy debt repayment needs in 2024, making a new IMF program essential to unlock financing from other sources like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China.