Key Economic Data Release to Influence Growth and Inflation Forecasts
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release monthly Personal Income & Outlays (PI&O) data on Feb. 2024 spending and inflation on March 29. This data heavily impacts GDP, growth, inflation forecasts.
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Median forecasts expect record high monthly spending ($19.1 trillion) but below average real spending growth (+0.1% MoM). Recent forecasts have tended to underestimate spending.
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Three scenarios analyzed forecasts accurate (some recession risk), upside surprise (lower recession risk, higher growth/inflation), downside surprise (higher recession risk, lower growth/inflation).
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Markets could make a big move depending on inflation data. Fed speeches scheduled around release time.
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Investment group positioning for likely disappointment in Fed policy expectations and concerned about 2024 inflation risks. Sees opportunities emerging mid-year.