ANZ Slashes Philippines' 2023 GDP Growth Forecast to 5% on Weak Q2, Slowing Consumption, High Inflation
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ANZ lowered Philippines' GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 5% from 5.8% due to weaker than expected Q2 performance.
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Consumption growth is slowing due to moderating remittances, uninspiring job creation, and tighter bank lending.
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Inflation outlook has deteriorated due to rising food and energy prices; expected to fall back to 2-4% target range only in Q1 2024.
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BSP likely to keep policy rate unchanged at 6.25% through end of 2024 before cutting by 50 bps in 2025.
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Exports face weaker demand outlook in 2024 although tech cycle is reviving.