Forecasted Rate Cuts to End Higher-For-Longer Plateau in 2024

Global interest rates are forecast to begin falling in early 2024 as central banks pivot from tightening to rate cuts, ending the "higher-for-longer" plateau.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates before mid-2024 amid slowing inflation and economic growth.

Emerging market central banks like Brazil's and South Africa's are also forecast to ease policy in 2024 as inflation pressures ease.

Turkey's central bank is an outlier, expected to continue hiking rates to 35% by year-end 2023 to curb runaway inflation above 60%.

Overall, more than 125 basis points will be cut from the aggregate global rate by end-2024, a slower pace than the prior tightening cycle.