Permanent Job Losses and Rising Debt Delinquencies Point to Looming Recession
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Permanent job losses have accelerated, signaling potential recession like the last 3 since 1995.
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Historically, the Fed cuts rates 5-14 months after last hike; we are at 8 months now.
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Recessions tend to start around the first rate cut, with markets bottoming 13-33 months after the last hike.
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Corporations locked in low rate debt in 2020-21, delaying impact of 2023 rate hikes.
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Delinquencies and defaults rising across debt types, widening credit spreads even as central banks cut rates.