Recession Warnings Flash Red as Economic Indicators Continue Downward Spiral
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The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) 6-month average growth rate was -7.5% in November, below the -4.5% threshold that has always preceded recessions.
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The LEI growth rate has been negative for 20 straight months, a warning sign seen before the 1974 and 2008 recessions.
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Inverted 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread is another recession indicator that has been triggered.
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Falling Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is a third recession warning sign that is currently active.
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The combination of these indicators suggests the risk of an incoming recession has never been louder, yet most people seem ill-prepared.