Economist Warns Very High Odds of Recession Despite Investor Optimism

The odds of a recession are "very high" (49%-51% chance), says chief economist Joe LaVorgna, pointing to several warning signs.

Unemployment could spike as over 1 million construction jobs may be lost if housing market doesn't pick up.

Consumer spending on goods expected to drop with higher rates and lower pandemic savings.

Recession indicators like yield curve inversion, bank lending contraction, and leading indexes are "flashing recession."

Investor sentiment surveys show increasing bullishness on stocks and economy, contrasting LaVorgna’s recession warnings.