Posted 1/10/2024, 10:35:05 PM
Recession Risks Linger Despite Hopes of a Soft Landing
- Risks of recession in 2024 still persist despite current "soft landing" of slowing growth and steady unemployment
- Markets are pricing in an overly optimistic "rosy scenario" of Fed rate cuts and double-digit earnings gains
- We're in a transitional stage that has historically preceded downturns and recessions
- Consensus view of soft landing being assured may be too optimistic given still uncertain Fed impacts
- Two tail risks recession with earnings miss, or no recession and Fed resumes rate hikes