Russia Transitions to War Economy, Aims for Long Conflict with Ukraine
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Russia is transitioning to a war economy, spending up to 40% of its GDP on the war effort against Ukraine. This could give it a long-term advantage over Ukraine and NATO allies.
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Russia is repurposing civilian infrastructure like shopping malls and bakeries into weapons factories. Russians are also being asked to volunteer in factories to increase production.
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Russia claims a 560% increase in tank production and 350-360% rises in other armored vehicles since February 2022. But this may only replace losses rather than expand capability.
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Russia aims to fight the war for 3-4 more years at least. If the West does not keep pace, Russia could gain overwhelming material superiority to defeat Ukraine.
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Official Russian military spending is set to rise from 2.7% of GDP in 2022 to 6% in 2024. But the real proportion of GDP spent on the war is likely even higher.