Flaws in Efficient Market Theory Highlight Emotion as Market Driver
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The efficient market hypothesis is flawed and does not reflect how markets behave in the real world. Sentiment and emotion drive markets more than fundamentals.
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Predicting future news or information is not actually very helpful for predicting market moves. Many big market moves happen without any news or events to explain them.
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Charts and technical analysis have proven more reliable than fundamentals-based predictions. The author has made accurate market calls based on charts while fundamentals-based calls have been wrong.
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Economists and analysts who rely on macro fundamentals have a poor track record of predicting market turns. They tend to be bullish right before market collapses.
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The author recommends investors focus more on market psychology and sentiment to understand market moves rather than simplistic cause-and-effect fundamental analysis.