Home Price Growth Likely Peaked, Poised to Slow in 2024 Despite Ongoing Supply Constraints
-
Home price appreciation likely peaked in December 2023 and will slow down in 2024 due to lower mortgage rates. This will help buyers regain some purchasing power, while reducing the "lock in" effect for sellers.
-
Prices still won't drop compared to a year ago, according to First American's 20 major markets. But slower appreciation could encourage more sellers to rejoin the market.
-
All 30 of First American's major markets saw higher year-over-year price gains in January 2024 than the national average. Some areas saw double-digit gains.
-
23 of the 30 major markets tracked are already seeing prices below their post-pandemic peak. This "rising tide" hides recent price changes.
-
The economist compares today to the 1980s housing recession, but notes that positive price appreciation is still expected this time even as rates fall. The supply constraint makes it different.