Kenya at a Crossroads: Scenarios Explore Paths to 2040 Triumph or Tragedy
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Kenya 2040 A Nation's Triumph depicts a bright future with strong economic growth, reduced poverty and corruption, and Kenya as a model for Africa.
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The Managed Economic Stagnation scenario shows a country dominated by state-owned enterprises with high taxes and debt, surveillance and restricted freedoms.
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The Jua Kali Kingdom scenario describes a struggling informal economy beset by governance issues, inequality, and institutional weaknesses despite some reforms.
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The Eastern Sunset scenario paints a bleak picture of sluggish growth, high unemployment, a weak currency, and an ineffective state with poor public services.
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The four scenarios represent a range of potential futures for Kenya in 2040, from triumph to tragedy, based on policy choices made today.