Markets Keep Expecting a Fed Pivot That Never Comes
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In November 2021, markets anticipated a dovish pivot due to Omicron but the Fed kept hiking.
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In May 2022, markets expected less tightening due to growth risks but the Fed stayed hawkish.
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In July 2022, recession fears led markets to expect a pivot but the Fed kept tightening.
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In late September 2022, UK turmoil led to pivot expectations but the Fed kept hiking aggressively.
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Currently in November 2023, weak data has led to hopes of a pivot again, but it remains uncertain if the Fed will actually pivot.