Hiring Slowdown Signals Growing Risk of Labor Market Deterioration
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Hiring is slowing down based on data from JOLTS, Business Employment Dynamics, and Quarterly Workforce Indicators showing hiring rates dropping since mid-2022.
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Fewer Americans are reporting having jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey, which showed a slight decline in December.
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The service sector is seeing a much weaker labor market than last year based on the significant drop in the ISM Services Employment Index.
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Job openings may decline in the first half of 2024 due to the falling hiring rate, which could lead to slower hiring later this year.
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There is a nearly 20% chance the unemployment rate could jump to between 4-5% in the next 12 months, indicating a higher risk of labor market deterioration.