Analyst Sees Sustained Stock Market Decline Ahead Due to Weak Consumers, Imbalanced Risks, and Rising Rates

SPY has seen a sustained rally and then a correction since June. I believe the current correction is just the beginning.

Consumer confidence is declining according to surveys. This indicates consumers are getting weaker, not stronger as expected.

The equity risk premium is imbalanced. Stocks should be moving lower based on financial theory.

Higher interest rates are expected to impact S&P 500 ROE and pose challenges for growth stocks.

Despite upside risks, I don't see where the double-digit EPS growth in the consensus for FY2024 will come from given weak consumers, imbalanced risk premium, and rising rates.