Stocks Could See Double-Digit Gains If Fed Rate Hikes Are Over, But Outlook Remains Uncertain
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Stocks and 401ks may surge now that the Fed's aggressive rate hikes seem to be over, based on history.
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The S&P 500 has averaged 14% gains in the 12 months after the Fed's final rate hike in past cycles.
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Rate hikes make stocks less appealing vs bonds. Ending hikes reverses this.
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There are some caveats - the Fed hasn't ruled out more hikes, and stocks fell after some previous final hikes.
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Other factors like earnings, valuations, and the economy also affect stocks after rate hikes end, not just the Fed's actions.