2023 Stock Outlook Modest as Late-Cycle Rate Cuts Seen Unlikely to Fuel Market Rally
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Landscape for stocks in 2023 looks similar to 2006, when late-cycle rate cuts led to modest 14% stock returns over next year
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Markets expecting rate cuts as business cycle slows, but cuts may not lead to huge stock gains investors hope for
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1984 and 1994 mid-cycle rate cuts fueled much larger stock returns over next year compared to late-cycle cuts
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Weakening labor market conditions suggest 2023 is late cycle environment, not mid-cycle like 1984/1994
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Wilson predicting S&P 500 stays relatively flat in 2024, unlike other banks forecasting new record highs