Economists Divided on Recession Odds Despite Strong 2023 Outlook
• Despite a strong 2023, some economists still predict a recession in the next 18 months, citing indicators like the inverted yield curve and leading economic indexes.
• The Fed projects just 1.4% GDP growth in 2024, the lowest since 2009, lending credence to recession fears.
• Goldman Sachs says even a mild recession could spark a 20%+ stock market drop, to S&P 500 3,700.
• However, other indicators like low volatility and unemployment don't point to an imminent recession.
• The Fed's interest rate moves will be crucial - markets expect more cuts than Fed projections.