Stocks Surge in November, Historically Pointing to Further Gains Through End of Year and Into 2023
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Stocks have rallied sharply in November, with the Dow up 8%, S&P 500 up 8.3%, and Nasdaq up 10% month-to-date. This sets the stage for continued gains in December and into 2023 based on historical data.
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The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.8% gain the month after a monthly increase of 8% or more, and sees positive returns 90% of the time over the subsequent year, averaging 15.8%.
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The Nasdaq has historically finished December higher 67% of the time after being up over 20% year-to-date through November, averaging a 3.7% December gain.
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The S&P 500 has gained 18.2% year-to-date and has tendency to see a positive December 75% of the time, averaging 1.9% returns.
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Stocks are being fueled by expectations of a Fed pivot to rate cuts in 2023 and continued economic resilience, though past performance does not guarantee future results.