Economy Shows Mixed Signals on Inflation and Growth, Keeping Rate Cut Timing Uncertain

Recent economic data showed inflation slowing but manufacturing activity and prices expanding, fitting the narrative that rate cuts will happen later than expected.

Despite surging bond yields yesterday, the S&P 500 has been resilient this year - hitting 22 record closes and falling 1% only 3 times.

The 10-year yield spike may not indicate much; it's still below late November levels and stocks fell less than 1%.

Fed policy depends more on reasons behind data than the data itself. Tightness indicators matter more than strength ones for rates outlook.

Strong March jobs data on Friday could spark a sell-off if higher than expected, but historically strong job growth alone hasn't worried the Fed about inflation.