AI Experts Drastically Accelerate Timeline Predictions for Key Milestones
-
AI experts surveyed shifted their estimates of when key AI milestones would be achieved earlier by about a year on average between 2022 and 2023 surveys.
-
Forecasts for when high-level machine intelligence would be achieved shifted 13 years earlier between the two surveys.
-
Predictions for when full automation of labor would occur shifted a drastic 48 years earlier between surveys.
-
15.6% of experts surveyed want AI progress to go "much faster," while only 4.8% want it to go "much slower."
-
The authors caution that AI experts may lack expertise in forecasting or non-technical factors influencing AI, so their predictions should be viewed with that in mind.