Recession Odds for 2024 Decline as Economic Outlook Improves Slightly

Recession odds for Sep 2024 fall to 46% from 59% last quarter, lowest since Q1 2022. Still close to coin flip but outlook improves.

Most economists (59%) now say recession odds in next year are <50%. Majority said >50% last quarter.

Risks remain from lagged impact of rate hikes, oil price shocks, student loans, govt shutdown, auto strikes.

If recession hits, likely mild and in H1 2024. Could mean fewer jobs but lower unemployment.

Survey of economists shows recession forecasts range from 15% to 90%. About 1 in 4 say odds ≤25%.