Tesla Q1 2024 Delivery Estimates Drop Below 2023 Record on Slowing Demand

Delivery estimates for Tesla's Q1 2024 are highly variable, ranging from 420,000 to 480,000 vehicles. The consensus estimate has dropped to 458,500.

Tesla deliveries grew 50% annually until last year when growth started slowing. Tesla doesn't give clear guidance so analysts estimate using available data.

Most analysts agree Tesla deliveries will be down year-over-year. Last quarter deliveries were a record 484,507 vehicles.

Lower estimates reflect multiple analyst downgrades over recent weeks based on incoming data. Troy Teslike, an analyst with detailed delivery data and models, predicts 420,000 deliveries.

Electrek believes anything under 450,000 deliveries would be bad for Tesla. 420,000 deliveries specifically would be down year-over-year and with added Cybertruck capacity. It could signify inventory buildup and demand issues.