Market Sentiment, Not Fundamentals, Drive Stocks; Crash Could Confirm Start of Secular Bear Market
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The stock market does not actually predict the future or see ahead based on fundamentals like earnings. It is driven by market sentiment.
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Many common beliefs about how the market works are actually false and not supported by facts, yet get repeated often.
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With the recent drop to 4100, the market may be setting up for a larger crash down to the 2900-3300 region in the next 1-2 years.
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I track probabilities and scenarios, not blanket bullish/bearish calls. The market needs to prove the crash setup before it's high probability.
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This potential crash would confirm the start of a long-term secular bear market. The implications would be very serious if it plays out.