Prediction Markets Offer Election Betting, Claim Accuracy Over Polls
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Prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Iowa Electronic Markets offer betting and insights on elections.
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These markets claim to be as or more accurate than polls, asking who will win rather than who you want to win.
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Legal issues constrain these markets, with Kalshi and PredictIt fighting regulators to expand election betting.
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Offshore betting on elections already occurs, but some want regulated US markets to make it accessible.
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The author sees election betting odds as an extra data source, like past journalists using Wall Street odds, not a perfect prediction.