Posted 10/26/2023, 1:57:00 PM
Bond yields keep climbing after Fed's pause, mirroring 1969 rate hike cycle that preceded recession
- Yields rose for 3 months after final Fed rate hike in 1969, ending with a recession
- Current bond market rout mirrors 1969, with yields rising despite Fed pause since July
- In past cycles, yields fell after final hike, but 1969 saw yields keep climbing like now
- In 1969 recession started 3 months after final hike, suggesting yields may keep rising until downturn
- 1969 recession had modest impact on S&P earnings; current yields may only stop with clearer recession signs