Stocks See Muted Gains in Bull Market's First Year, But History Shows Election Years Could Bring Further Rallies

The bull market in stocks turned 1 year old and is up 22% over the past year, one of the weakest first years ever.

History suggests more solid gains could be ahead in 2024 if a recession is avoided next year.

The second year of a bull market averages a 13.5% gain for the S&P 500, with 1987 seeing a 29% gain.

2024 is an election year, which historically leads to average gains of 7.3% and even more in a president's first term.

Gains of 12%, typical in a first-term president's election year, would take the S&P 500 to new highs around 4,880.