The fast two minutes in crop markets
The USDA report release on August 11th caused significant changes in commodity markets, with soybean and cotton prices increasing while corn prices had a more mixed reaction.
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Posted 8/22/2023, 7:01:58 AM
farmprogress.com
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The recent heat wave may contribute to increased volatility in commodity markets, particularly affecting soybeans which are in the reproductive stage and could lead to higher prices, while corn is expected to require deeper yield reductions to see significant price increases, and wheat prices are expected to continue struggling.
The grain markets are influenced by multiple factors such as yields, the U.S. economy, seasonals, early harvest yields, geo-politics, the September WASDE report, and more, which can have a significant impact on prices until the end of 2023.
Soybeans were the strongest performer in the grain market this week, while corn prices faced disappointment and struggled to break through resistance levels. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated lower yields for both corn and soybeans compared to USDA estimates, potentially leading to higher prices if adjustments are made in the September WASDE report.
The farmers' crop outlook remains uncertain as they are unsure of the damage caused by previous dry conditions and the upcoming heat, leading to low corn prices and high soybean prices; farmers are advised to be cautious in selling beans and consider taking advantage of early shipment premiums. Additionally, it is recommended to finish fall fertilizer purchases and potentially start purchasing for spring. The USDA may lower their yield estimate due to abnormal weather patterns, and once the harvest is complete, the market will have a clearer picture of the crop's size, potentially leading to price fluctuations.
Analysts expect the upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates to show smaller corn and soybean crops due to falling yield prospects caused by dry and hot weather conditions.
Global food commodity prices declined by 2.1 percent in August, driven by falling prices of essential food items excluding rice and sugar, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. The decrease was due to reduced prices for vegetable oils, meat, dairy products, and cereals, while sugar prices saw a slight increase.