Fed Seen Remaining Cautious on 2024 Rate Cuts Despite Slowing Growth Forecasts
• US economic growth will remain resilient in 2024, making the Fed cautious about rate cuts
• The Fed is expected to cut rates significantly, by 100 basis points in both 2024 and 2025
• Consensus forecasts predict slowing growth, with GDP expanding just 0.4% in Q1 2024 and 0.3% in Q2
• Payroll gains will cool and inflation will fall close to the Fed's 2% target in 2024
• Avoiding recession means probability remains elevated; markets seen as too pessimistic on continued economic resilience