UK Growth Slows, Raising Election Risks for Conservatives

• The UK may have entered a technical recession at the end of 2022, which could hurt the Conservatives in upcoming by-elections • The government hopes improving growth and tax cuts can boost its popularity before a likely autumn general election • While the UK is outperforming major economies like Germany and France, GDP per capita lags due to very high immigration • There are now questions around whether persistently high immigration generates sustained fiscal benefits • Polling shows immigration and asylum are now the most important issue for 2019 Conservative voters, requiring a policy response