U.S. Job Market Stays Strong But Faces Uncertainty in 2024
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The U.S. job market remained strong in 2023 despite fears of a recession, but it's unclear if that will continue in 2024. Key trends to watch are hiring demand, workforce participation, quit rates, wage growth, and AI adoption.
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Prime-working age participation increased recently but may fall long-term as boomers retire. Employers may tap into unemployed workers versus poaching from competitors.
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The “Great Resignation” quit rate has plateaued but remains high historically. Businesses still need retention efforts like better pay and flexibility.
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Wage growth should return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2024. But it can't fall too fast or hurt purchasing power. The goal is 3.5-4%.
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AI will spread rapidly, reshaping jobs. Roles building tools and leveraging them (e.g. marketing) will likely surge. Job seekers should reskill accordingly.