The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a second consecutive week, indicating a strong labor market despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
This week's highlights include new data on the U.S. labor market, earnings reports from several retailers, and the latest inflation data.
U.S. job growth is slowing down but remains steady, with the unemployment rate settling at 3.5% in July and predictions that the August jobs report will show similar results, although concerns remain regarding potential slowdowns and negative growth.
The August jobs report is highly anticipated as investors assess the health of the labor market amidst rising interest rates and inflation, with projections indicating an increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but potential disruptions from ongoing strikes and bankruptcies could affect the data. The report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of labor market softening as they grapple with inflation, and while the labor market has remained tight, there are indications of a gradual slowdown. Job openings have decreased, along with resignations, pointing to a labor market that is cooling.
Job creation in the American labor market is expected to slow down in August, with the addition of approximately 170,000 jobs, reflecting a mild cooling of employment growth and wage growth, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on hiring; the recent strikes in the film industry, although not a significant direct employer, are likely to have some impact on the jobs numbers, particularly those related to on-set production and support roles.
The US added more jobs than expected in August, but the unemployment rate increased, while average hourly earnings and nonfarm payrolls growth were slightly below forecasts.
The US added 187,000 jobs in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, indicating a plateau in the labor market as the Federal Reserve considers another interest rate hike.
The US added more jobs than expected in August, but the unemployment rate rose, causing little change in the price of bitcoin while traditional markets reacted positively.
The week has been driven by macroeconomic data, but the threat of economic contraction is not currently imminent, with the US Ten-Year Note yielding around 4.11% overnight and the US Dollar Index trading around 103.5; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment-related surveys for August today, with economists expecting non-farm job creation of around 170,000 and wage growth at 4.4% year over year.
The Fed's "Sahm Rule" recession gauge could be triggered by an increase in unemployment, according to Peter Corey, co-founder and chief market strategist at Pave Finance, who believes that a stronger-than-expected jobs number and an uptick in the average workweek could put upward pressure on wages and possibly lead the Fed to tighten.
The US job market added 187,000 jobs in July, returning to pre-pandemic levels and indicating a gradual cooling off of the labor market, with positive economic news and a steady unemployment rate of 3.5%.
Unemployment in the UK rose to 4.3% between May and July 2023, with the increase driven by those unemployed for up to a year, while economic inactivity also saw a slight rise; however, wages continue to increase, with pay excluding bonuses up 7.8% and median monthly wages up 6.7% compared to last year.
