Megatrends: The Origins and Critiques of Predicting Societal Shifts
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Megatrends are major transitions shaping society and business, like climate change and aging populations. The term was popularized by John Naisbitt's 1982 book "Megatrends".
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Megatrends attract interest from banks, consultancies, and think tanks seeking to predict the future and advise clients. But some criticize them as too broad or speculative.
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The origin of "megatrends" traces back further than Naisbitt, appearing in the 1970s. But his book made the term mainstream.
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Critics argue megatrends must not be seen as perfect predictions but rather starting points for deeper analysis about the future.
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Megatrends belong to the wider field of futures studies, which uses various disciplines to forecast societal change. This field has its own institutions like journals and degree programs.