S&P 500 Soars Over 10% in Q1, But Analysts Predict Drops Ahead Despite Historically Positive Returns
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The S&P 500 gained over 10% in the first quarter of 2024, its best Q1 performance since 2019 and something it has only done 11 times since 1957.
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Historically after a 10%+ Q1 gain, the index has averaged 7.5-7.6% returns over the next 12 months.
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However, many Wall Street analysts predict the S&P 500 will decline by the end of 2024 due to high inflation, rising rates, and lofty valuations.
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JPMorgan expects a 19% drop to 4,200 by year-end, Morgan Stanley sees a 14% fall to 4,500, Wells Fargo an 11% decline.
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Despite short-term volatility, the S&P 500 has returned 10.6% annually over the past 30 years, so long-term investors should stay patient.