S&P 500 Soars Nearly 9% in November, Historically Signaling End of Bear Market
• The S&P 500 jumped 8.9% in November 2023, one of its best monthly gains since 1950. This has happened only 30 times since 1950.
• Historically after such a large monthly gain, the index moves higher 90% of the time over the next 12 months, with average returns of 15.8%.
• The recent gain follows declines in previous months and may signal the end of the recent bear market. Other large gains have marked the end of past bear markets.
• The Federal Reserve is likely done with interest rate hikes for now due to signs of economic cooling. This removal of uncertainty helped drive November’s rally.
• The S&P 500 typically rallies sharply when the Fed stops rate hikes. Past cycles saw 17.6% average gains over the 12 months after hikes ended.