Summary: The transition of Ethereum to proof of stake has resulted in a significant reduction in energy consumption and the network becoming economically deflationary, although technical challenges still remain; however, concerns have emerged regarding the centralization of validation and the growing regulatory pressure in the United States.
After Ethereum's transition to proof of stake one year ago, notable developments have occurred, including a reduction in energy consumption, a substantial increase in staked Ethereum, concerns about centralization and censorship, advancements in scaling solutions, regulatory scrutiny on staking services, a decrease in overall token supply, and ongoing development of future upgrades.
Ether (ETH) has shifted from being deflationary to inflationary due to decreasing network activity on Ethereum, which could negatively impact the token's price, according to analysts. The decline in network fees and the adoption of layer 2 networks have contributed to the increase in ETH supply, reversing its previous deflationary trend. This has raised concerns among crypto observers who predict bearish developments for ETH, including a potential drop to as low as $1,000.
The Ethereum Merge, which transformed Ethereum from a proof-of-work asset to a proof-of-stake asset, has made staking an attractive option for holders as it allows them to generate returns and weather bear markets, with the recent State of Staking report showing total staking rewards for all cryptocurrencies at $5 billion on an annualized basis during Q2 2023. Additionally, the implementation of the Shapella upgrade has removed barriers to entry and enabled holders to withdraw their staking rewards, leading to a net inflow of over 7.5 million ETH into staking. Despite some challenges such as long queues and increased strain on the network, staking on Ethereum continues to grow in popularity and play a pivotal role in the network's future.
The supply dynamics of Ethereum have been affected by the drop in DeFi, NFT sales, and meme coin trading, with Ethereum being either deflationary or inflationary depending on the time frame. The implementation of EIP-1559 and the transition to proof of stake have also impacted Ethereum's supply and transaction fees, while gas prices have been declining due to scaling solutions and a lack of narrative in the crypto market.
Bitcoin ended the day slightly higher but saw a dip as the US 10-year yield surged, while the launch of ether futures ETFs did not generate much investor interest; however, the overall crypto market has been experiencing a rally influenced by factors like SEC approvals and government decisions, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this rally.
The rise of Ethereum staking has led to increased centralization and lower yields, with the top five liquid staking providers controlling over 50% of staking on the network, according to a report by JPMorgan. This centralized control poses risks to the Ethereum network and its security.
Despite initial excitement about Ethereum's transition to proof of stake and the expectation of deflationary trends, the recent surge in global ETH supply has raised concerns about the network's inflationary nature and long-term financial health. While Ethereum core developers seem largely unconcerned, inflationary trends and the impact of low gas fees on burning ETH have sparked debate among users and investors.
Ethereum's network revenue generated from fees has significantly decreased, which challenges the deflationary supply narrative of its native token ether (ETH) and puts its "ultra sound money" thesis to the test, according to crypto data analytics firm IntoTheBlock. The reduction in fees is a result of lower demand for NFTs and DeFi, as well as the increased adoption of layer 2 scaling solutions, but it also keeps ETH's supply inflationary by burning fewer tokens than new issuance.
