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The Thermodynamics of Crypto Investing

As crypto risks evolve over time, so do the opportunities for returns, creating a transforming landscape for digital alpha investing with reduced risks paving the way for institutional adoption, although the window for capacity-constrained smaller funds to outperform won't last forever.

coindesk.com
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The global digital assets market, including cryptocurrencies like XRP, is projected to account for up to 10% of all assets by 2030, potentially reaching a valuation of over $14.5 trillion, driven by factors such as the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies, as well as regulatory certainty and institutional investor interest. Pro-XRP analysts suggest that XRP could become the next big thing in the financial market, with the potential for significant returns, especially considering Ripple's efforts to expand its use cases and accommodate tokenized assets.
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a potential larger financial event in September that could significantly impact Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and the wider digital asset landscape.
Global investment giant BlackRock has positioned itself to benefit from the growing importance of digital assets, including Bitcoin, through its substantial stake in MicroStrategy, indicating a new phase of institutional adoption in the cryptocurrency market.
Institutional investors hold the power to determine the success or failure of cryptocurrencies, as the novel technology and uncertain regulation have diminished interest and confidence, resulting in a significant decline in value.
There is a possibility that digital assets may not witness another bull market, according to a crypto strategist who is growing skeptical of the market's potential for a bullish reversal this time around, citing a lack of real-world use cases and the failure to deliver on promises. However, another investor remains confident that a crypto bull market is coming, predicting a potential decline in prices before a new bull market begins.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will increase by over 2,100% in less than seven years, driven by institutional investment and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), with the total crypto market cap potentially reaching $25 trillion by 2030.
The crypto market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that the unlocking of billions in capital flowing into US-based ETFs could make 2024 a significant year for digital assets despite the US Securities and Exchange Commission's stance on crypto.
BlackRock's entry into the crypto space with its application for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) marks a significant turning point that dispels the notion of cryptocurrencies as a passing trend, signaling the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and the crypto industry.
Ethereum's price has been declining, leading to concerns among investors, but there are two factors to consider: a drop in user activity and transaction volume on the Ethereum blockchain, which may be due to users migrating to faster and cheaper Layer 2 blockchains, and selling by Ethereum "whales" and insiders, including co-founder Vitalik Buterin, which could be attributed to profit-taking and security measures rather than a lack of confidence in Ethereum's future prospects. Despite the market's overreaction, Ethereum remains a strong investment with its dominance in various business segments and ongoing development plans.
Market makers in the crypto sector are facing challenges as costs increase and investors shy away from the market following a $2 trillion crash, leading to efforts to mitigate risks and a decline in profitability, with providers diversifying their activities across exchanges and storing digital assets away from trading venues. The market-making sector is experiencing a drop in profitability due to the use of intermediaries and collateral, and the industry has recognized the need for higher costs and increased risk management.+
Despite the uncertain regulatory environment and the current state of the crypto markets, asset managers remain interested in digital assets and expect the industry to grow in the next five years, with many estimating a compound annual growth rate of at least 11%.
The market is underestimating the potential impact and value of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with analysts arguing that approval would lead to significant financial inflows and buying pressure, and that it is a good time to enter the market and start building a crypto portfolio, despite regulatory challenges. Ethereum could also benefit from a futures-based ETF listing, but there is caution about the SEC potentially classifying ETH as a security. Overall, the global crypto adoption is dependent on market maturity, regulatory intervention, and consistent long-term adoption.
Crypto strategist predicts a significant expansion in the digital assets market similar to 2019, with the possibility of a short squeeze after a Bitcoin market correction.
Crypto is poised to create a new investable asset class globally and will revolutionize the internet, requiring new business models, metrics, and research structures, as well as a framework to analyze value flows within the tech stack, particularly in relation to Ethereum's layer 2 solutions.
Ark Invest's recent report highlights the recovery of Bitcoin's realized capitalization, the decline in liquidity and trading volumes, the recent increase in volatility, and the optimistic long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.