Recession Indicators Flash Warning Despite New Stock Market Highs

Combination of indicators has been warning of recession since Sept 2023, but new market highs in March 2024 suggest recession won't start before May 2024.

Reckoning is that US economy entered economic bust phase in early 2022 due to monetary inflation.

Manufacturing new orders index turned down again in Feb, keeping intact recession warning.

Stock market at new highs not consistent with being in bust phase.

Conflict likely to be resolved by either credit spreads widening on weak economy or commodity prices rising on new boom; former more likely.