UK economy shows cautious signs of recovery, but outlook remains uncertain

• UK economy showing some signs of recovery after recession in 2022, but growth is still slow on per capita basis • Inflation easing and wage growth outpacing prices, improving living standards • Bank of England expected to hold off on rate cuts until summer as it monitors pay growth and unemployment • Forecasts show modest GDP growth of 0.8% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2025 • Possibility of "immaculate disinflation" with price pressures easing without significantly higher unemployment