Recession Warning Signs Flash as Growth Slows, Jobs Weaken

• The US Leading Economic Index has declined over the past year, signaling recession risk as it has preceded nearly every recession in the past 120 years • GDP growth is slowing dramatically, with Atlanta Fed forecasting just 2.5% expansion in Q1 • Jobs growth remains strong in non-discretionary sectors like health and education, but overall hiring conditions are weakening • The ECRI's Cyclical Labor Conditions index has plunged nearly 50% in recent years, similar to drops before past recessions
• Top economist warns the economy faces "tug-of-war" between weakness and external supports, risking trouble if those props are removed