Prediction Markets Make a Comeback as Silicon Valley Bets on the Wisdom of Crowds
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Prediction markets allow users to bet on future events, aggregating information to predict outcomes. Proponents believe they filter out bias and noise, rewarding good forecasters.
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The idea has been revived recently by Rationalists in Silicon Valley, who see prediction markets as an essential check on experts and authorities.
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Startups like Manifold Markets use play money, but hope to expand. Critics argue real-money markets could allow distortion of public opinion.
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Advocates believe prediction markets could counter misinformation and conspiracy theories by raising the stakes of fringe views.
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Participants enjoy the competitive aspect of wagering, feeling validated when they win bets. Critics worry about ethics of encouraging gambling on everything.