Recession Risks Remain Despite Averting 2023 Slump
• Risk of recession elevated but one didn't happen in 2023 due to good policies and luck • Employment in private services sector excluding health/education dropped sharply recently • Economist sees 65% chance of mild recession in 2024, expects unemployment to rise • Fed faces challenge determining when to cut rates without causing recession • Goldman Sachs economist sees only 15% chance of recession in next 12 months