Tech stocks soar, but signs point to bubble bursting soon
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The stock market bulls argue the current environment is like 1995, early in the dot-com bubble, but there are important differences vs 1995 like inverted yield curve and poor macro environment.
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Inflation was low and stable in the 1990s, the Fed was mostly concerned about strong growth, unlike now where inflation is high and the focus.
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The geopolitical and economic context is very different now compared to the supportive context of globalization and strong growth in the 1990s.
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Despite similarities in unemployment rate, other factors like yield curve inversion suggest we're closer to the 2000 peak bubble than the 1995 early bubble.
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The recommendation is still to hold tech stocks like Nvidia, but beware the bubble could burst soon, like in March 2000, if the Fed pivots hawkishly.