Split Government in 2023-24 Could Ensure Policy Continuity and Steady Markets
• Markets historically perform best under split government when different parties control Congress and the White House. This limits extreme policy changes.
• Control of Congress in 2024 may matter more for markets than who wins the presidency.
• A Republican Senate and Democratic House are likely in 2023-2024 based on seats up for election.
• A Trump win with full GOP Congress control would bring the most change - tax cuts, healthcare cuts, immigration crackdown.
• A Biden win with split Congress may maintain status quo, preventing major partisan legislation.