S&P 500 Could See Up to 21% Returns Over Next 2 Years If Historical Bull Market Trends Persist
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The onset of a new bull market has historically been a reliable indicator - the S&P 500 has always produced positive returns in the 2 years after the start of a bull market.
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Since 1957, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 61% and a median of 58% in the 24 months following the start of a new bull market.
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Applying this to the current bull market which started in Oct 2022, the S&P 500 may have 18-21% upside through Oct 2024.
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Historically, average bull markets last 5 years 4 months and see 184% returns - this suggests 25% annualized returns for the S&P 500 through Feb 2028.
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Forecasts have limitations - this bull market is unique, so past performance may not predict future results, especially given high valuations.